My inital impressions and opions of the SM faction

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Re: My inital impressions and opions of the SM faction

Postby aprg » 22 June 2016, 05:17

Imperator5 wrote:Lance Harbringers will kill you to death easily. Especially if they got a probe. Superior weapons.. can you count? I did the math. You ignore the math.

[...]

You must have came up against players who are WORSE than easy ai. You also ignored the math I did that proven for a fact that Sm Vanguard weapons are extremely weak. Never ignore math.


Mathematics is a scalpel, not a cudgel. You're being breathtakingly arrogant. I understand it's par for this forum but in this case the holes in your argument are so obvious that it's cringe-worthy.

Nobody is arguing that the Vanguard has better DPS than the Dauntless (which is my favourite ship, incidentally), but in that duel, it's the Dauntless that's more likely to suffer critical hits to its systems and thus suffer a bigger drop in survivability or DPS. A stock Dauntless vs a stock Vanguard has an effective troop rating of 50 vs 70, and the crits the Dauntless suffers are more likely to be permanent.

So you can't just do a straight DPS comparison. This should be obvious. You can use binomial probability to make estimates on the number of crits per boarding that will inflicted, for example.

In the Vanguard vs. Dauntless duel, remembering LCs roll two assault dice and that you add turrets to troop ratings vs. boarding actions, that means you can expect the Dauntless to suffer two critical hits 16.81% of the time, one critical hit 48.38% of the time, and suffer no damage 34.81% of the time; compared to that, the Vanguard suffers two critical hits 4.41% per, one critical hit 33.18% per, and no damage 62.41% per boarding action.

If you apply weighting to this, that means the Vanguard inflicts around 0.82 critical hits per boarding pass, whereas the Dauntless inflicts around 0.42 critical hits per boarding pass. That's a sizeable difference.

And yes, it's still down to the RNG whether that takes out shields, or deck, or weapons. But you can't just dismiss that as "just luck" when you turn around and say "never ignore the math" in the next post. Mathematics is a scalpel, not a cudgel.

And maybe there's another answer as to why CALiGeR190 has been having success with them (you know, other than only drawing noobs): maybe the dude plays well (he's been doing it since Alpha, apparently!) and has gelled well with the playstyle! And maybe, just maybe, he even knows how to count!

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Re: My inital impressions and opions of the SM faction

Postby Cryhavok » 22 June 2016, 05:59

aprg wrote:And yes, it's still down to the RNG whether that takes out shields, or deck, or weapons. But you can't just dismiss that as "just luck" when you turn around and say "never ignore the math" in the next post. Mathematics is a scalpel, not a cudgel.

Also don't forget about all the fires and hull breaches. Between assault boats and homing torpedoes, that dauntless is likely going to be out of weapons and on fire for much of the battle, and there is a even a decent chance it won't even get to fire it's shiny weapons before the boarding torpedoes knock them out. I've been killing dauntless(s) with the SM torpedo escorts, the light cruiser is not bad.

Now the cruiser on the other hand, I do not like.
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Re: My inital impressions and opions of the SM faction

Postby Imperator5 » 22 June 2016, 09:01

aprg wrote:
Imperator5 wrote:Lance Harbringers will kill you to death easily. Especially if they got a probe. Superior weapons.. can you count? I did the math. You ignore the math.

[...]

You must have came up against players who are WORSE than easy ai. You also ignored the math I did that proven for a fact that Sm Vanguard weapons are extremely weak. Never ignore math.


Mathematics is a scalpel, not a cudgel. You're being breathtakingly arrogant. I understand it's par for this forum but in this case the holes in your argument are so obvious that it's cringe-worthy.

Nobody is arguing that the Vanguard has better DPS than the Dauntless (which is my favourite ship, incidentally), but in that duel, it's the Dauntless that's more likely to suffer critical hits to its systems and thus suffer a bigger drop in survivability or DPS. A stock Dauntless vs a stock Vanguard has an effective troop rating of 50 vs 70, and the crits the Dauntless suffers are more likely to be permanent.

So you can't just do a straight DPS comparison. This should be obvious. You can use binomial probability to make estimates on the number of crits per boarding that will inflicted, for example.

In the Vanguard vs. Dauntless duel, remembering LCs roll two assault dice and that you add turrets to troop ratings vs. boarding actions, that means you can expect the Dauntless to suffer two critical hits 16.81% of the time, one critical hit 48.38% of the time, and suffer no damage 34.81% of the time; compared to that, the Vanguard suffers two critical hits 4.41% per, one critical hit 33.18% per, and no damage 62.41% per boarding action.

If you apply weighting to this, that means the Vanguard inflicts around 0.82 critical hits per boarding pass, whereas the Dauntless inflicts around 0.42 critical hits per boarding pass. That's a sizeable difference.

And yes, it's still down to the RNG whether that takes out shields, or deck, or weapons. But you can't just dismiss that as "just luck" when you turn around and say "never ignore the math" in the next post. Mathematics is a scalpel, not a cudgel.

And maybe there's another answer as to why CALiGeR190 has been having success with them (you know, other than only drawing noobs): maybe the dude plays well (he's been doing it since Alpha, apparently!) and has gelled well with the playstyle! And maybe, just maybe, he even knows how to count!


Gee Sherlock how did you miss the point that I was comparing weapons and not boarding actions? Yes, the Vanguard got better boarding actions, but it very seldom survives long enough to make more than 1 pass of it.

Even than, the enemy can negate one set of criticals with the repair skill now. This works greatly against the Vanguard.

Also, the enemy can stack cruisers together to overlap turrets. Against SM early game who have very little AOE its a good idea.

I'm not saying he is not good, I'm saying the SM vanguard is shit. If he beats person X with a Vanguard, he would beat Person X with Hellbringers TWICE AS GOOD.

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Last edited by Imperator5 on 22 June 2016, 10:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: My inital impressions and opions of the SM faction

Postby CALiGeR190 » 22 June 2016, 09:33

Imperator5 wrote:Gee Sherlock how did you miss the point that I was comparing weapons and not boarding actions? Yes, the Vanguard got better boarding actions, but it very seldom survives long enough to make more than 1 pass of it.

Even than, the enemy can negate one set of criticals with the repair skill now. This works greatly against the Vanguard.

Also, the enemy can stack cruisers together to overlap turrets. Against SM early game who have very little AOE its a good idea.

I'm not saying he is good, I'm saying the SM vanguard is shit. If he beats person X with a Vanguard, he would beat Person X with Hellbringers TWICE AS GOOD.

The folly in your argument is that you completely ignore personal circumstance, battle scenarios and boarding.
Simple comparing one number from one ships against the number from another ship will not give you an accurate picture of how they perform.

Your narrow focus on one line of maths, and almost nothing else, means the entire argument is wonky from the start.
I'm talking from extensive play experience with every other faction and comparing them based on how the Vanguard has performed compared to the many different renditions of the existing CLs and their current states.

I'm not trying to say the Vanguard is particularly 'good' either, I'm just saying it compares favourably with other CLs: Its a balanced ship, and therefore is not a 'bad' or 'underpowered' ship.

Insulting the intelligence of someone also isn't an effective way of winning an argument, I should point out.
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Re: My inital impressions and opions of the SM faction

Postby Imperator5 » 22 June 2016, 09:55

CALiGeR190 wrote:
Imperator5 wrote:Gee Sherlock how did you miss the point that I was comparing weapons and not boarding actions? Yes, the Vanguard got better boarding actions, but it very seldom survives long enough to make more than 1 pass of it.

Even than, the enemy can negate one set of criticals with the repair skill now. This works greatly against the Vanguard.

Also, the enemy can stack cruisers together to overlap turrets. Against SM early game who have very little AOE its a good idea.

I'm not saying he is good, I'm saying the SM vanguard is shit. If he beats person X with a Vanguard, he would beat Person X with Hellbringers TWICE AS GOOD.

The folly in your argument is that you completely ignore personal circumstance, battle scenarios and boarding.
Simple comparing one number from one ships against the number from another ship will not give you an accurate picture of how they perform.

Your narrow focus on one line of maths, and almost nothing else, means the entire argument is wonky from the start.
I'm talking from extensive play experience with every other faction and comparing them based on how the Vanguard has performed compared to the many different renditions of the existing CLs and their current states.

I'm not trying to say the Vanguard is particularly 'good' either, I'm just saying it compares favourably with other CLs: Its a balanced ship, and therefore is not a 'bad' or 'underpowered' ship.

Insulting the intelligence of someone also isn't an effective way of winning an argument, I should point out.


Personal circumstance does not matter for balance at all. Battle scenario I only take cruiser clash, all others are wonky anyway. Boarding again is:
A- RNG
B- Long cooldown
C- Can now be countered by triggering repairs.

It simply does not perform well. If you are such a great player that you can work with it, okey, but it still underperforms compared to other LCs.

Sure, there are scenarios vanguards can win, like against an ork carrier LC fleet. They only need to take interceptors. That's around the only scenario where I think they got the upper hand when players are of the same skill level.
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Re: My inital impressions and opions of the SM faction

Postby Guyver » 22 June 2016, 10:02

feeling the same on the op here...
and that's why you test these kind of things, now we just have to wait for an august balance patch and we will be done. :P

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Re: My inital impressions and opions of the SM faction

Postby aprg » 22 June 2016, 10:12

Imperator5 wrote:Gee Sherlock how did you miss the point that I was comparing weapons and not boarding actions? Yes, the Vanguard got better boarding actions, but it very seldom survives long enough to make more than 1 pass of it.


:? Yes, and again, mathematics is a scalpel, not a cudgel. It's a precision tool, not something to hit people over the head with so you can have Internet Tough Guy Points. You say "don't ignore the math", but you ignore anything that doesn't support your point of view.

The whole point is to take a holistic view. Saying "nyah, nyah, I was only talking about DPS values!" isn't smart or precise, it's reductive.


Even than, the enemy can negate one set of criticals with the repair skill now. This works greatly against the Vanguard.


(True, except of course when that extra chance of perma crit comes in....)

Also, the enemy can stack cruisers together to overlap turrets. Against SM early game who have very little AOE its a good idea.


(True, but that's not the be-all and end-all of strategy...)

I'm not saying he is good, I'm saying the SM vanguard is shit. If he beats person X with a Vanguard, he would beat Person X with Hellbringers TWICE AS GOOD.

A Nascar racer may do good in a Trabant, but he'll do better with a good car no matter how he swears the Trabant is the best car ever.


Seriously, dude, at this point you're not even debating, you're just flinging your opinion at the forum like a monkey in a cage, and trying to dress it up as something fancy by using the word "math". How about you take a step back and realise that your opinion isn't objective?

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Re: My inital impressions and opions of the SM faction

Postby Imperator5 » 22 June 2016, 10:19

aprg wrote:
Imperator5 wrote:Gee Sherlock how did you miss the point that I was comparing weapons and not boarding actions? Yes, the Vanguard got better boarding actions, but it very seldom survives long enough to make more than 1 pass of it.


:? Yes, and again, mathematics is a scalpel, not a cudgel. It's a precision tool, not something to hit people over the head with so you can have Internet Tough Guy Points. You say "don't ignore the math", but you ignore anything that doesn't support your point of view.

The whole point is to take a holistic view. Saying "nyah, nyah, I was only talking about DPS values!" isn't smart or precise, it's reductive.


Even than, the enemy can negate one set of criticals with the repair skill now. This works greatly against the Vanguard.


(True, except of course when that extra chance of perma crit comes in....)

Also, the enemy can stack cruisers together to overlap turrets. Against SM early game who have very little AOE its a good idea.


(True, but that's not the be-all and end-all of strategy...)

I'm not saying he is good, I'm saying the SM vanguard is shit. If he beats person X with a Vanguard, he would beat Person X with Hellbringers TWICE AS GOOD.

A Nascar racer may do good in a Trabant, but he'll do better with a good car no matter how he swears the Trabant is the best car ever.


Seriously, dude, at this point you're not even debating, you're just flinging your opinion at the forum like a monkey in a cage, and trying to dress it up as something fancy by using the word "math". How about you take a step back and realise that your opinion isn't objective?


I missed a "not" in the sentence and just realised. You are good for *something* it seems.

I did not ignore it. I said it does not make up for the negative things. If boardings always did permanent criticals, I would say it would be worth it. They do not.

My opinions area always objective. I have an extremely logical and one track mind with zero empathy. All you are doing is simply whining. At least Caliger tries to bring up mismatched points, only being mistaken in mathmetical parts and feeling the single boarding gimmic outdoes all the negatives.

Just go away and let him talk. You will do him a favour.
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Re: My inital impressions and opions of the SM faction

Postby aprg » 22 June 2016, 12:13

Imperator5 wrote:Just go away and let him talk. You will do him a favour.


Dude, you bring even LESS to the table. You're all puff and no number-crunching. As a guy who loves mathematical analysis, the gap between your claims and your contributions are just... disappointing.

I've tried to do the analysis on boarding actions. I've explained that it can be calculated by binomial expansion. Do you understand what that is? Do you need me to explain to you how I came to the number of 0.82 crits per Vanguard boarding pass vs. a Dauntless against 0.42 crits in the reverse scenario? If you don't need me to explain that do you, do you agree that those numbers are correct?

If you don't think those numbers are correct -- correct me. Mathematically. Nobody would be more delighted than me to learn that you can actually walk the walk instead of just talking the talk.

If so -- good. Why don't you actually help me and figure out the next step -- how to calculate the proportion of those crits that is Fire/Hull Breach vs. temp crit vs. perm crit. Cuz according to the FAQ ( link here ), the regular boarding action split is 25% HB/Fire, 25% temp crit, 50% crit. But Space Marine Surgical Strike "quadruples instead of doubles" the chance of a perm. crit. I could assume that means it's going to be 16.67% HB/Fire, 16.67% temp crit and 66.67% perm crit, though as usual the Tool Tip text's not expressing itself the most clearly. What do you think?

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Re: My inital impressions and opions of the SM faction

Postby Imperator5 » 22 June 2016, 12:21

aprg wrote:
Imperator5 wrote:Just go away and let him talk. You will do him a favour.


Dude, you bring even LESS to the table. You're all puff and no number-crunching. As a guy who loves mathematical analysis, the gap between your claims and your contributions are just... disappointing.

I've tried to do the analysis on boarding actions. I've explained that it can be calculated by binomial expansion. Do you understand what that is? Do you need me to explain to you how I came to the number of 0.82 crits per Vanguard boarding pass vs. a Dauntless against 0.42 crits in the reverse scenario? If you don't need me to explain that do you, do you agree that those numbers are correct?

If you don't think those numbers are correct -- correct me. Mathematically. Nobody would be more delighted than me to learn that you can actually walk the walk instead of just talking the talk.

If so -- good. Why don't you actually help me and figure out the next step -- how to calculate the proportion of those crits that is Fire/Hull Breach vs. temp crit vs. perm crit. Cuz according to the FAQ ( link here ), the regular boarding action split is 25% HB/Fire, 25% temp crit, 50% crit. But Space Marine Surgical Strike "quadruples instead of doubles" the chance of a perm. crit. I could assume that means it's going to be 16.67% HB/Fire, 16.67% temp crit and 66.67% perm crit, though as usual the Tool Tip text's not expressing itself the most clearly. What do you think?


I just put no value on your opinion at all and just ignore it. The RNG is just too random for any meaningful analysis in my experience.
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