Kadaeux wrote:G13 wrote:Keep digging.
You are experiencing something known as "being results based", more commonly known as "the gamblers fallacy"
If you flip a coin 2 times, and both times they were heads (100%), the chance of it being heads is still actually only 50%, despite the results.
If, even in 100s (or 1000s or any number really) of games of BFG:A, you have never seen a Nova Kannon fire more than 3 times, the probability that it CAN fire more than 3 times still remains constant (~42.2%)
You wouldn't be a very good Poker Player I'm afraid, you would never handle the swings
Except that, *drumroll* it isn't a fallacy. Scientific theory and mathematical proofs are literally air on the wind without evidence to back them. When the equation says X, but repeated testing shows Y, then the equation, while perfectly valid itself, if it isn't reflected in practice. There is elements unaccounted for in it.
Still trying to argue that 0.75^4 =/= 0.316? or maybe you think 31.6% is in fact lower than 25%?
Well guess what? YOU CAN PROVE YOURSELF WRONG!
Isn't this great and it's a really simple scientific test:
Step 1: Load up BFG:A
Step 2 : Run a skirmish game as orks with a ship with Nova Kannon
Step 3: fire Nova Kannon until destroyed and record how many shots it took
Step 4: repeat steps 2 and 3, 100000 times (or more if you'd prefer more accuracy) to get a statistically significant sample
Step 5: calculate the percentage chance of destruction for how many shots fired based on your results.
Go get em tiger, the proof is out there!